Betting Theory: Half-time Over/Under opportunities

Published on: Category: Betting Guide

For all those who have long been keen on betting, chasing after the bookmaker’s mistake is a daily habit. But, is it really worth your while? And, how often could this happen? According to research, there are certain betting categories in football matches, where the chances of a bookmaker making a mistake are increased. One of those categories is the 1st Half Over/Under.

Given the fact that the most common first-half goal-line is over/under one goal, the bookmakers undervalue any other outcome. Since it is rather rare for more goals to be scored, the odds for a total score Under 1.0 are low. Of course, everything depends on the league on which you bet your money. A game is played at a different pace when taking place in England (especially low levels), France or Germany.

The interesting thing, though, is that research has shown that the probability of 2 goals being scored within the first 45 minutes of a game is equal to the probability of 0-0 or up to one goal being scored during the same time. This is often incorrectly assessed by the bookmakers who, thus, create a chance for a safer bet with respect to the impression given in the first place. For example, in this year’s Super League, there was an average of 0.6 goals per first half. This is not the case in Premier League or Primera División, where the teams are very strong in terms of pace of play and overall quality play.

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